Highlights from 2025 around the Twelfth District. Discover how the SF Fed engages, listens to communities, and learns from ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local ...

The fraction of men working in the United States has declined consistently since the 1950s. This has contributed to slower labor force growth and resulted in considerable gaps between labor force ...

As we approach the end of the year, here’s a top five list of our most widely read FRBSF Economic Letter topics in 2025, ...

Highlights from 2025 around the Twelfth District. Discover how the SF Fed engages, listens to communities, and learns from local economies.

We document evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange (FX) reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase. Countries with ...

Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow ...

The minimum wage has gained momentum among policymakers as a way to alleviate rising wage and income inequality. Much of the debate over this policy centers on whether raising the minimum wage causes ...

The longest-term U.S. Treasury bonds that investors can buy mature in 30 years. Some other countries offer up to 50-year government bonds. Examining these foreign bond markets and extrapolating U.S.

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The question of the correct way to measure inflation is an important one. Price stability over time, along with "maximum" sustainable economic output and employment, are the Federal Reserve’s primary ...